NASCAR Cup Series Predictions at Pocono
Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin battling for position at Pocono in July 2022.
NASCAR Cup Series racing resumes this Sunday from Pocono Raceway for the HighPoint.com 400 at 2:30 PM EST on USA.
Last year’s race saw controversy as Kurt Busch would suffer a career ending crash during qualifying and would see the impromptu Cup debut of Ty Gibbs. The feud between Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin would also continue as Chastain was pinched into the wall by Hamlin, who would go onto win the race, with Kyle Busch finishing 2nd and Chase Elliott 3rd. However, NASCAR would disqualify both Hamlin and Busch after they found a piece of clear tape in front of the left-front and right-front wheel openings of the car. Therefore, Chase Elliott was declared the winner of the race.
Denny Hamlin looks for vengeance as he is still tied with Jeff Gordon for the all time wins leader at Pocono with six. Martin Truex Jr also enters with momentum as he’s the new odds on favorite to win the Cup Championship following his dominating win at New Hampshire on Monday. Hamlin has won twice in his last seven Pocono races, with four Top 5’s, five Top 10’s, and an average finish of 9th. Truex Jr has two wins at Pocono, coming in 2015 and 2018. In his last seven starts, he’s gathered one Top 5 and four Top 10’s, with an average finish of 13th. Joe Gibbs Racing always has fast cars at Pocono, these two will be at the top of the charts on Sunday.
Kyle Busch returns to Pocono in a Chevy for the first time since 2007. He’s been very consistent at this track, with four wins in his last 10 starts. He also has seven Top 5’s, eight Top 10’s, and an average finish of 10th in his last 10 starts. After a disappointing day in New Hampshire, the #8 team is due for a bounce back race, there’s no better track for that to happen than the Tricky Triangle.
Kyle Larson ran 3rd at New Hampshire, a much needed result after a 36th place finish in Atlanta. Larson had a race slip away from him at Pocono in 2021 after cutting a tire going into the final corner, allowing Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman to sneak away with the win. Larson’s last seven starts at Pocono include four Top 5’s, five Top 10’s and an average finish of 10th. He’s still looking for that first Cup win at the Tricky Triangle, and there’s a good chance that can happen on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace broke through for their first Top 10 since the Coca-Cola 600 in New Hampshire, with Reddick finishing 6th and Wallace finishing 8th. Both have each scored two Top 10’s and a Top 5 in their last two starts at Pocono. Reddick finished 9th in ‘21 and 2nd in ‘22, Wallace finished 5th in ‘21 and 8th in ‘22. Look for the duo at 23XI Racing to continue to run inside the Top 10 this Sunday.
Kevin Harvick won at Pocono in his 39th start back in 2020, and this Sunday will mark his 44th and final Cup start. Since Stewart-Haas switched to Ford in 2017, Harvick has only finished outside the Top 10 twice in 11 race at Pocono, including last year’s race after getting caught in the middle of Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain’s incident in Turn 1. He’s recorded nine Top 5’s and Top 10’s and an average finish of 7th. Happy Harvick still has one more strong run left in the tank for the Tricky Triangle this Sunday.
Brad Keselowski enters this Sunday as the underdog compared to everyone else listed above. He won at Pocono in 2011 in just his 4th start at the track, and his first start since suffering a broken ankle in a test on the Wednesday prior at Road Atlanta. In his 25 Cup starts at Pocono, he’s only DNF’d once in 2018. Over his last seven starts at the Tricky Triangle, he’s recorded two Top 5’s, five Top 10’s and an average finish of 8th. Lookout for Keselowski at the end of the Cup race on Sunday.
Odds to Win Outright (FanDuel)
Hamlin (+500)
Truex Jr (+500)
Busch (+650)
Larson (+650)
Reddick (+1200)
Harvick (+1600)
Wallace (+3000)
Keselowski (+3500)
Odds to Finish Top 10 (FanDuel)