NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions at Texas
Noah Gragson posing in victory lane after his win at Texas
NASCAR makes its final stop in the Lone Star state, as the Xfinity Series takes on the high banks of Texas Motor Speedway this Saturday at 3:30PM EST on USA.
Noah Gragson won last year’s fall race as only eight drivers finished on the lead lap, following a multitude of accident throughout the field.
John Hunter Nemechek +240
Entering as the favorite, John Hunter Nemechek dominated the most recent 1.5 mile race at Kansas, leading 154 of 200 laps. He also enters with a +65 point cushion, the most amongst Playoff drivers without a win. Besides a 28th place finish in last year’s race, Nemechek won the Fall ‘21 race, along with finishes of 5th, 9th, and 4th. If Kansas was any indication of what to expect at Texas, then prepare for another dominating performance from the #20 Joe Gibbs Toyota Supra.
Austin Hill +700
After crashing last week at Bristol, Austin Hill enters Texas with only a +21 point cushion to the cutoff. Hill returns to a track where he finished 2nd in last year’s Fall race to Noah Gragson and 5th in Spring ‘22. His worse finish on 1.5 mile tracks in 2023 was 12th in the Atlanta Summer race after being turned inside the Top 10 with a few laps remaining. Keep an eye on the #21 RCR Chevy Camero.
Cole Custer +700
Cole Custer enters this weekend third in the Playoff standings with a +39 point gap to the cutoff. Having not raced at Texas since 2019, Custer will look towards teammate Riley Herbst for tips on how to navigate the track since they’ve applied PJ1 in the upper grooves of the track. Custer won back in 2018 and has five Top 5’s in six starts at the 1.5 mile track. Only time will tell if the #00 Stewart-Haas Ford Mustang has what it takes to contend for the win on Saturday.
Josh Berry +850
After a disappointing 36th place finish at Bristol, Josh Berry finds himself at the bottom of the Playoff standings -24 points from advancing. He’ll need a Top 10 finish to diminish the gap that’s there. He finished 6th in last year’s race and in the most recent 1.5 mile race at Kansas. It might take a win to lift the pressure off his shoulders, but the #8 JR Motorsports Chevy Camero has the speed to do just that.
Sam Mayer +1200
Similar to teammate Josh Berry, Sam Mayer finds himself below the cutoff at -14 points. Mayer only has three starts at Texas, with his worse finish being 13th, and his best finish being 3rd from the Spring ‘22 race. Since his win at Watkins Glen, Mayer’s best finish has been 11th. He’ll be expecting at a Top 10 performance with his #1 JR Motorsports Chevy Camero this Saturday.
Sheldon Creed +2500
Sitting at +4 points above the cutoff, Sheldon Creed has no room for any mistakes. Which he’s been limiting since his 26th place finish at Road America. He finished 7th in last year’s Fall race and 3rd at Kansas. Unfortunately, he won’t be able to rip the outside like he did at Kansas, but he’ll be on the look once more for his first win of the season in his #2 RCR Chevy Camero this weekend.