NASCAR Cup Series Predictions at Homestead
Kyle Larson posing in victory lane after winning the 2022 Dixie Vodka 400.
With just three races left in the season, NASCAR makes its final stop in South Florida with the 4EVER 400 at 2:30 PM EST this Sunday on NBC.
Last season, Kyle Larson was finally able to win at Homestead in his ninth Cup start at the track in dominating fashion, leading 199 of 267 laps.
Kyle Larson +280 | Top 3 -180 | Top 10 -680
There’s no driver hotter in the Cup Series than Kyle Larson, as he enters this weekend as the favorite. He won last week at Las Vegas in a thrilling finish with Christopher Bell, locking him into the Championship 4. It was Larson’s first win at a 1.5 mile track this season, after finishing 2nd in the Spring race at Las Vegas and Kansas, not to mention he almost won at Texas a few weeks back after crashing in the closing laps racing for the lead with Bubba Wallace. With nothing to worry about for the next two weeks, you can expect Larson to let it rip along the outside wall this Sunday.
Tyler Reddick +500 | Top 3 +130 | Top 10 -360
Entering this weekend -16 to the cutoff, Tyler Reddick heads back to one of his best racetracks in Homestead. In the Xfinity Series, he won in 2018 and 2019 while becoming the first Xfinity driver since Ricky Stenhouse to win championships in back-to-back seasons. However for Cup, he finished 35th in last year’s race after crashing out, but finished 2nd in 2021 and 4th in 2020. He likes to rip along the outside wall just like Kyle Larson. He’ll be looking to give Larson a run for his money this weekend.
Martin Truex Jr +550 | Top 3 +150 | Top 10 -360
After winning the regular season championship, the cushion for Martin Truex Jr has fallen to just +2 above the cutoff. If there’s anyone who’s in need of some momentum, it’s the driver of the #19. He finished 9th last week at Las Vegas, his first Top 10 finish since Watkins Glen. At Homestead, Turex Jr has finished inside the Top 10 in five of his last six starts, including a win in 2017 to secure his first Cup championship.
Denny Hamlin +700 | Top 3 +185 | Top 10 -310
Joe Gibbs Racing has another driver sitting at just +2 points above the cutoff, that being Denny Hamlin, who has what teammate Martin Truex Jr is needing: momentum. He’s finished inside the Top 10 in five of his last six Cup starts, including a win at Bristol. He heads into Homestead where he’s looking for his fourth win at the track. In Hamlins’ last ten starts, he’s earned six poles, two wins, and has an average finish of 7th.
William Byron +750 | Top 3 +185 | Top 10 -310
After Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson won last week at Las Vegas, William Byron is looking to add his name into the Championship 4. He returns to a track that put him and crew chief Rudy Fugle on the radar for years to come in the Cup series, where he won in 2021 after leading 102 of 267 laps. Not to mention he’s won at Las Vegas and Atlanta in the Spring, along with Texas this season. Byron will be looking to dominate this Sunday.
Brad Keselowski +2000 | Top 3 +550 | Top 10 -140
Looking to spoil the party on Sunday is Brad Keselowski. After exiting the Playoffs in the second round, there’s only one goal for the rest of the season: win. AJ Allmendinger played spoiler at the Charlotte ROVAL, and there’s a good chance Keselowski can do that. He’s finished inside the Top 10 in his last four starts on 1.5 mile tracks this season, and he finished fifth in last year’s race at Homestead. He’s been so close to winning this season, it could all come together this weekend.
Austin Dillon +25000 | Top 3 +5000 | Top 10 +500
In what has been a lack luster season for Austin Dillon, there’s still three races left in the season to end on a high note for Richard Childress Racing. He’s finished inside the Top 10 in three of his last four starts at Homestead, including a fourth place finish last year, his best Cup finish at the track, with his average finish being 11th. This is the longest shot of the season on this website for the win, but realistically there’s a good chance that Dillon can finish inside the Top 10 or even Top 5.