NASCAR Cup Series Predictions at Atlanta
Chase Elliott in victory lane following his Quaker State 400 win in July 2022.
NASCAR Cup Series action returns to the high banks of Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Quaker State 400 at 7 PM EST on the USA network.
Last year’s race ended under caution after Chase Elliott threw an aggressive block on Corey Lajoie, sending him into the wall and collecting Kurt Busch in Turns 1 and 2. This year’s race will be run under the lights, providing cooler track temps and more grip for the drivers.
Chase Elliott heads into Atlanta as the favorite, still searching for his first win of the season. His average finish under the new configuration is 3.5, including a 6th place finish in the ‘22 Spring race. He missed the ‘23 Spring race as he was recovering from a fractured tibia. Since his return, Chase has an average finish of 9th, scoring four Top 5’s and six Top 10’s. With only 8 races remaining in the 2023 regular season, Chase sits 24th in the points standings, -55 points from the cutoff. There’s no better feeling than winning at your home track, the #9 will look to repeat that this Sunday.
Brad Keselowski was leading the ‘23 Spring race at the white flag, before getting passed by Joey Logano for the win in Turn 2. Brad came home in 2nd, his best finish of the 2023 season, heading into Sunday. Two of his three Top 5’s came from super speedway races. Not to mention his run in the Daytona 500 with RFK teammate, Chris Buescher, if he wasn’t caught in a crash he could’ve had another Top 5 finish. Expect the #6 to be up front most of the race, with a shot at redemption.
Joey Logano won the ‘23 Spring race with a last lap pass over Brad Keselowski, leading 140 of the 260 laps. Since his win, he’s had an average finish of 16th, with three Top 5’s and six Top 10’s. However, three of his last four races have resulted in two Top 5’s and three Top 10’s. Not to mention, Logano has always been a factor when it comes to super speedway racing. He finished 2nd in the ‘23 Daytona 500 and almost had another shot at winning ‘23 Spring Talladega, had he not been involved in a crash. Don’t count out the #22 this Sunday.
Kevin Harvick hasn’t had the best of luck on this new Atlanta. His best finish of 12th came from the Summer race a year ago, but a strong run on Sunday could boost some momentum as he heads into his final Playoffs. Of the Top 10 drivers in the points standings, Kevin is the only driver without a win this season. He won his first Cup race at this track, nothing would be more fitting than for Harvick to win his final Cup race at the track where his success started.
Corey Lajoie and Spire Motorsports have come a long way in 2023. They enter 23rd in the standings, -47 points outside the cutoff, and they’ve had this race circled on their calendar for a long, long time. Lajoie finished 5th in the ‘22 Spring race and 4th in the ‘23 Spring race, and was so close to winning the ‘22 Summer race. Will the slipper fit for this Cinderella story? Only time will tell this Sunday night.
Erik Jones and Legacy Motor Club have had a downfall in 2023 compared to their 2022 season. But, things could be looking up for the famed #43 this Sunday night. With only three Top 10’s on the year, two of those were at Talladega and Atlanta, tracks that Jones has found speed at. He finished 14th in the ‘22 Spring race, 4th in the ‘22 Summer race, and 8th in the ‘23 Spring race, an average finish of 8th under the new configuration. Lookout for that Jones boy in the closing stages of Sunday night’s race.
Odds to Win Outright (FanDuel)
Elliott (+1100)
Keselowski (+1200)
Logano (+1300)
Harvick (+2500)
Lajoie (+3000)
Jones (+3000)
Odds to Finish Top 10 (FanDuel)