2025 Ambetter Health 400 Odds | Hunter’s Picks

It might be a chilly weekend in the low to mid 50’s in Hampton, Georgia, but NASCAR will be looking to heat things up around Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend. The Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series all race on the 1.5 mile superspeedway for their second race of the season. Last year’s weekend was highlighted by the incredible three wide photo finish in the Cup Series, with Daniel Suarez winning by .003 over Ryan Blaney and .010 over Kyle Busch.

Craftsman Truck Series

Fr8 208 | Feb 22 1:30 pm ET | FS1

+250 | Kyle Busch | Top 5 -275

In his first of five scheduled Truck races, Kyle Busch enters as the favorite to win. He’s won in seven of his fourteen Atlanta Truck races…LITERALLY A 50% WIN RATE. His most recent win came in last year’s race, where he led 33 of the 133 laps in his first race for Spire Motorsports since they purchased the assets of Kyle Busch Motorsports.

+850 | Corey Heim | Top 5 +110

The first Truck race of the season saw a last lap crash end the race under caution, and race winner Parker Kligerman getting disqualified for height being too low in the rear of his truck, therefore Corey Heim was inherited as the winner of the race. Heim has won in the past at Atlanta, back in 2022. He finished 3rd in last year’s race and will be looking to go 2 for 2 in 2025 this weekend.

+900 | Ty Majeski | Top 5 +120

Ty Majeski kicked off his championship defense with a 3rd place run at Daytona. He heads into Atlanta with some optimism on reaching victory lane at the 1.5 mile oval, where he’s finished no worse than 11th since the track’s re-profiling in 2022. He finished 2nd in last year’s race, looking to finish one spot better this time around.

+1000 | Chandler Smith | Top 5 +135

Chandler Smith finished 6th last weekend at Daytona, leading the most laps with 34. Important for Chandler since Atlanta is also a drafting track, where he finished 4th back in 2022 after being passed on the last lap by then teammate Corey Heim. Smith also finished 2nd and 4th in both Atlanta Xfinity races last year, showing his capability of running up front when it matters.

+1200 | Ben Rhodes | Top 5 +160

Ben Rhodes was in position for a good finish with teammate Johnny Sauter last week at Daytona, before a last lap crash took them both out. Rhodes heads into Atlanta, where he’s finished inside the Top 10 in all but two of his nine career Truck starts. He finished 28th in last year’s race after a commitment cone violation thwarted his Top 5 run. Ben will look to finish his story this weekend in victory lane.

+2200 | Gio Ruggiero | Top 5 +235

After starting deep in the field in 34th last week at Daytona, Gio Ruggiero rallied to finish 2nd in his first start at the 2.5 mile superspeedway. He’ll have his hands full heading into Atlanta, but will be leaning on teammate and Championship favorite Corey Heim to pave the way for him to have a shot at sneaking by with a win.

Xfinity Series

Bennet Transportation & Logistics 250 | Feb 22 5:00 pm ET | The CW

+300 | Austin Hill | Top 5 -230

The first race of the season did not start on the right foot for Austin Hill, where he would DNF due to fluid leaking on the rear end of his race car. Richard Childress had exclaimed after the race how it was unacceptable to have a parts failure on their race cars, so you know damn sure he’s gotten those cars prepped for the weekend ahead. Hill is hoping for his car to hold out, where he’s won four of the six Atlanta races since 2022, and swept both races in 2024.

+600 | Jesse Love | Top 5 -125

Jesse Love was the last RCR car standing at the end of the Xfinity race last weekend, and was able to win after a last lap crash caused NASCAR to throw the caution. Love won the pole for both races last year, finishing 12th in February and 6th in September. He’ll be on the prowl for another win for his 2025 campaign.

+1100 | Sheldon Creed | Top 5 +160

Sheldon Creed finished 3rd in his debut with Haas Factory Team, with teammate Sam Mayer finishing 2nd. Creed’s best Atlanta finish came in last February’s race, where he finished 4th for Joe Gibbs Racing. Despite being with his third team in three years, Creed has been persistently fast everywhere he’s been.

+2000 | Sammy Smith | Top 5 +250

Sammy Smith made his presence felt late in the going at Daytona, before getting caught up in a crash on the last lap. Smith has had three Top 10 finishes in four Xfinity starts at Atlanta, his best being 7th in the Fall race. Smith won at Talladega as well in the Fall last year, building his confidence in being a contender at the Xfinity level.

+2800 | Ryan Sieg | Top 5 +350

Ryan Sieg is the hometown favorite to win, just a 45 minute drive from Tucker down to Hampton. Sieg has had speed at the drafting tracks like Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta, with his only downside os that he gets caught up in a lot of crashes. Sieg has one Top 10 finish in his last six starts in Atlanta. But if he can avoid the wrecks, he’ll be in the Top 5 contending for the win.

+3500 | Carson Kvapil | Top 5 +450

Carson Kvapil impressed as he finished 4th at Daytona last week, despite being caught in an early crash. There’s not much experience for Carson when it comes to superspeedway racing, especially coming from a short track background. He finished 10th at Indianapolis last year with the superspeedway package. Kvapil will continue to impress with what should be another strong run this weekend.

Cup Series

Ambetter Health 400 | Feb 23 3:00 pm ET | FOX

+850 | Ryan Blaney | Top 5 +110 | Top 10 -275

Entering this weekend as the favorite to win is Ryan Blaney. He has the best average finish (7.2) at Atlanta since the track reconfigured into a superspeedway in 2022. He’s gathered three Top 5’s and five Top 10’s in that time frame, with his best finish of 2nd coming from last February’s three wide photo finish. Blaney will look to for his first Atlanta win since 2021.

+900 | Joey Logano | Top 5 +120 | Top 10 -250

Joey Logano had some drivers angry and annoyed after his late race crash in the Daytona 500 last week. Logano has two victories at the new Atlanta, back in March 2023 and in the Fall race last year. Penske was on a roll with their superspeedway cars at Daytona, so it shouldn’t change in Atlanta this weekend.

+1100 | Austin Cindric | Top 5 +140 | Top 10 -230

After an eventful weekend at Daytona, Austin Cindric heads into Atlanta with some strong momentum for his #2 Penske Ford. Cindric has finished 12th or better in his last five races at Atlanta. His best finish came in July 2022 when he finished 3rd, and he finished 4th in last February’s race, along with a 10th place run in the Fall.

+1200 | Chase Elliott | Top 5 +200 | Top 10 -180

Easily the hometown favorite for this weekend is Chase Elliott. The Dawsonville native will make his sixth start on the superspeedway surface, missing March 2023 due to an injury, where he’ll look to continue his impressive streak of Top 15 finishes since 2022. Elliott won in July 2022 and has yet to even lead a lap since then.

+1700 | Daniel Suarez | Top 5 +230 | Top 10 -120

Daniel Suarez stunned the NASCAR world with his win in a three wide photo finish, bringing some nostalgia back to those who watched the Disney movie ’Cars.’ He’s been surprisingly fast since the repave in 2022, with four Top 5 finishes and five Top 10 finishes in six races. Expect that #99 to be in a good spot to go for the win.

+3000 | Ty Gibbs | Top 5 +400 | Top 10 +150

Ty Gibbs showed promise in his last Atlanta start back in the Fall, winning the first stage and finishing second in the second stage, and was leading with 11 laps to go. He eventually finished 17th after things didn’t go his way on the track, but this trip to Atlanta just feels different. He’s finished in the Top 10 two times in his four races.

+7000 | Riley Herbst | Top 5 +900 | Top 10 +275

The ultimate wild card this weekend is Riley Herbst. He was screwed out of a potential Top 10, maybe even a Top 5 in last week’s Daytona 500 had he not lost control of his car on the final lap. Despite making the great save and the Big One on the final lap, Herbst finished 17th. He’ll be looking to be in the mix in the final laps of the race this Sunday, with good value for a Top 10.