NASCAR Cup Series Predictions at Sonoma
Daniel Suarez celebrating his 2022 NASCAR Cup Series win at Sonoma.
The NASCAR Cup Series returns to California for the final time in 2023 at Sonoma Raceway.
Last year, it was Daniel Suarez picking up his first career Cup victory and making history as the first Mexican born driver to win in the Cup level. Ford drivers Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell, Kevin Harvick, and Austin Cindric would finish inside the Top 5.
In 2023, Toyota has the only win on the road course portion of the schedule with Tyler Reddick from 23XI Racing. Reddick also recorded two victories last year at Road America and Indy G.P. with an average finish of 9th on road courses in 2022.
He opens as the co-favorite to win the race alongside Kyle Larson from Hendrick Motorsports. Larson won at Sonoma in 2021 and finished 15th in 2022 after having a loose wheel come off the car after a pit stop in the final stage.
Other drivers to keep an eye out for a trip to victory lane are Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher, Austin Cindric and Ty Gibbs.
Chase Elliott finished 2nd to teammate Kyle Larson in 2021 and scored an 8th place finish in 2022, but led the most laps in a race at Sonoma with 26. Coming off a one race suspension after his run-in with Denny Hamlin at Charlotte, Elliott sits at 27th in points. Safe to say it’s all business from this point forward with the driver of the #9.
Ross Chastain finished 7th in his last two races at Sonoma and recorded a 4th place finish at COTA earlier this season. But after a conversation with Justin Marks following Darlington, Chastain has toned down his aggressive driving style. Since then, he’s finished 22nd at Charlotte and Gateway while also dropping from 1st to 5th in the points standings. Look for Chastain to revert back to his old ways this Sunday.
Chris Buescher has quietly been one of the better road course drivers over the past year. Since his 2nd place finish at Sonoma last year, he’s recorded six straight Top 10 finishes on the road courses, an average finish of 7th. He’ll look for redemption this Sunday after coming one spot short in 2022.
Austin Cindric has had a better time on road courses than ovals. His average finish on road courses in 2022 was 9th, including his 5th place finish at Sonoma. He finished 6th at COTA and after teammate Ryan Blaney’s win at the Coke 600, he’s the only driver on Penske without a Cup win this season. This Sunday will be one of Cindric’s best opportunities to secure a victory and a spot in the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs.
Ty Gibbs has gone seven races without a Top 10, one of those Top 10’s came from a 9th place run at COTA. En route to a Xfinity Chamionship in 2022, Ty Gibbs averaged a finish of 10th on road courses including a win at Road America. Look for Gibbs to break that drought and have at least a Top 10 run this Sunday.
Odds to Win Outright (FanDuel)
+450 Reddick
+450 Larson
+550 Elliott
+1200 Chastain
+1800 Cindric
+2100 Buescher
+4000 Gibbs
Odds to Finish Top 10 (FanDuel)
-390 Reddick
-360 Larson
-360 Elliott
-280 Chastain
-155 Cindric
-140 Buescher
+175 Gibbs